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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán stood out as the exclusive EU chief to back the Republican candidate. This alignment was expected, considering Mr Orbán's embrace of divisive ideas including great replacement ideology and the crackdowns on media freedom. Analysts point out that Mr Orbán essentially laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising him as a precursor to Trump.

Political Favors In advance of Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections merely half a year off, Donald Trump returned some political favors. While Orbán aims for a fifth straight win leading a nation he describes as an illiberal democracy, his ruling party is behind in opinion polls. A meeting to Washington resulted in not just some autographed Trump merchandise; it brought far more significant electoral advantages.

Energy Exemptions and Fiscal Safeguards

Despite before admonishing European nations on the imperative to halt all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against countries continuing to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to grant a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the US government also agreed to provide a fiscal buffer to Budapest if it runs into any future difficulties, particularly since EU institutions continues to withhold billions in EU funding to Hungary due to rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this agreement are unclear. But Donald Trump illustrated his inclination to assist like-minded partners as the US extended a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Even though Orbán did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the discussions still was a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and Global Ramifications

Within EU circles, the US president's move will have highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, before which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, enjoys a comfortable lead in surveys. European leaders are accustomed not to expect principled consistency from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the US president’s moves to diminish the EU. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts European goals to end imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, these two countries, have contributed more than ten billion pounds to the Russian military campaign.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to create a coordinated approach for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any future peace negotiations, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the negotiating table continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has avoided pledging a significant change on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while emphasizing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, the European Union can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to core EU ideals, including the protection of minority groups and the autonomy of civic groups, has long been a source of shame for the EU. His persistent opposition on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its security prospects.