After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season on fire.
While it is not his best start to a term - he registered 11 strikes in his initial seven matches in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.
The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been from the penalty spot makes it even more impressive.
Why Haaland Stands Out
Naturally, physical problems might significantly impact in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so early in the season.
To begin with, the number of goals he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.
And second, the modest opening his typical competitors for the award have made.
Expected Goals Analysis
A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.
It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by Premier League history.
When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the English top division so far this term from normal play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more good opportunities to find the net than anyone else.
Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than anyone else in the division, he would nonetheless have netted significantly more goals as everyone else.
Scoring Situation Assessment
This is shown by examining the number and quality of scoring situations that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.
Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this campaign, a dozen more than any other player.
That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had in fact attempted more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).
What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 on average.
This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.
Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - due to a few simple finishes against West Ham United and Brighton.
Haaland's xG of 0.27 per shot is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the start of last season.
Essentially, the chances he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.
Historical Comparison
Starting a season so powerfully is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had registered ten strikes - four additional compared to anyone else and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.
However, it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.
During the current term, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.
Indeed this has been the quietest start to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.
Competitors' Modest Opening
It is not just Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the remaining ten footballers combined so far.
Whether because of physical problems - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have underperformed so far.
European Top Scorer Competition
Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the Continental scoring award that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's premier competitions?
That contest is far more competitive at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals each.
The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the top chance quality metric of the three players without having taken any spot-kicks positions him as the likely winner.
Yet given that the English and French stars are two of the best finishers in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.
